Choose your next market

Who this is for

Founder led lower-middle market companies with 5 to 50 million in annual revenue that want a practical, low risk path into a new country or province.

The quick answer

Score options on demand, access, cost to serve, and risk. Start with lookalike customers and channels. Validate with paid pilots or distributor preorders. Confirm legal, tax, and import rules early. Choose one entry beachhead and a simple success line for pipeline, margin, and cash. Expand only when the first beachhead meets targets.

The method in eight steps

Write the scoring table
Create four columns. Demand, access, cost to serve, and risk. Define what a five out of five means for each so scoring is consistent.
Shortlist three lookalike markets
Pick places where your current ideal customer exists and where your proven channels can reach them.
Score with data and operator input
Use customer counts, partner reach, freight and wage benchmarks, and a short risk list that includes compliance, currency, and political factors.
Pick one beachhead
Choose one region, one customer profile, and one offer. Keep scope tight so you can learn fast.
Set the success line
Publish three numbers for the first two quarters. Pipeline created, gross margin after local costs, and net cash impact.
Validate with paid proof
Run paid pilots, secure distributor preorders, or collect signed letters with dates. Free trials do not count as validation.
Prepare a light go to market kit
Country price card, one pager, talk track, service levels, and a list of qualified partners for referrals and logistics.
Decide and expand
If the beachhead meets the success line for two cycles, add the next cluster of lookalike customers. If not, adjust or stop.

Example

A firm chose Alberta as a provincial beachhead based on strong access to lookalike industrial customers and partner reach. With paid pilots and a clear price card they hit the pipeline and margin line in quarter two, then expanded to Saskatchewan.

Pitfalls and fixes

Too many markets at once. Choose one beachhead.
Validation that is interest only. Use paid proofs.
Ignoring landed cost. Include freight, duties, tax, and warranty.

Checklist

Scoring table with clear rules
Three market shortlist and scores
Beachhead selection and success line
Paid validation plan
Country price card and talk track