Pick the right growth rate

Who this is for

Founder led lower middle market companies with 5 to 50 million in annual revenue.

The quick answer

Set a growth rate that your margin and cash can support. Many firms in this range target mid teens to mid twenties while staying cash positive. Build base, upside, and downside cases. Tie each case to hiring, pricing, and working capital.

The framework in six steps

  1. Start with unit economics
    Confirm gross margin by offer, contribution per unit, and payback on new spend.

  2. Model demand drivers
    Look at win rate, average deal size, and sales cycle. Include expected price moves.

  3. Build three cases
    Base at current win rate. Upside with one or two proven levers. Downside with slower demand or cost pressure.

  4. Match growth to capacity and cash
    Translate each case into headcount, inventory, and delivery needs. Build a simple cash bridge by quarter.

  5. Set guardrails
    Name a minimum margin and a minimum cash headroom. Growth plans cannot cross these lines.

  6. Review quarterly
    Replan when facts change. Lift or lower targets based on the scorecard.

Example

A twenty eight million distributor set a base plan at eighteen percent, an upside at twenty four percent, and a downside at ten percent. They tied each case to a hiring plan and a cash view. The base delivered a one point margin lift and cash stayed above ninety days of costs.

Pitfalls and fixes

  • Chasing volume with weak margin. Set guardrails and hold them.

  • Hiring ahead of cash. Tie roles to pipeline and payback.

  • Ignoring price. Include price and mix in every case.

Checklist

  • Unit economics confirmed

  • Three cases built and linked to cash

  • Guardrails set for margin and cash

  • Quarterly review on the calendar

Related links