Use simple scenarios

Who this is for

Founder led lower middle market companies with 5 to 50 million in annual revenue.

The quick answer

Pick the few variables that move results. Price, volume, cost, and hiring. Build base, upside, and downside cases with triggers that move you between them. Tie each case to a clear cash and hiring plan.

The framework in six steps

  1. Choose variables
    Price, volume, cost, hiring, and working capital.

  2. Build three cases
    Base from current trends. Upside with proven levers. Downside with known risks.

  3. Link to actions
    Hiring plan, spend levels, and inventory rules per case.

  4. Set triggers
    Leading signals that switch cases, such as pipeline and win rate.

  5. Publish one page
    Show numbers and the action table.

  6. Review monthly
    Move cases when triggers hit.

Example

Triggers based on pipeline and bookings helped a firm slow hiring early in a soft quarter and protect cash.

Pitfalls and fixes

  • Too many variables. Keep it simple.

  • Cases with no actions. Tie to hiring and cash.

  • No triggers. Decide on signals in advance.

Checklist

  • Three cases built

  • Action table by case

  • Triggers chosen

  • Monthly review booked

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